Insight

A review and preview of the global fastener market

Named after the Roman god who is often depicted as having two faces – due to its ability to look to the future and to the past – the Janus Perspective is a unique feature that includes a wide cross section of global fastener business leaders, who have all contributed their retrospective of 2019 and thoughts on prospects and challenges for 2020.

Alan Gardner, global marketing manager

At the end of 2018, global automotive production was forecast at 94.5 million units for the full year of 2019. By Q4 2019, that full year forecast had dropped by some 5% to 89.7 million, not far off 2015 vehicle output. Whereas all regions have seen decline, the largest drop in production was in Asia, with China and India being the most effected.

Both macro and micro factors have influenced this decline in the last 12 months. At the geopolitical level, trade tensions and global uncertainty have reduced global GDP growth forecast to 2.6% in the last year (against a proceeding five year average of 3%). This along with the WTLP (Europe) and Level VI emissions standards (China) has affected consumer confidence and purchasing of new vehicles.

What has this meant for coaters of fasteners? Well, a decline in direct volume from the reduced automotive production and an indirect reduction as automotive is the second largest consumer of business products (i.e. new machinery). Moving forward, 2020 looks again to be a very tough year. Global GDP growth is forecast at 2.7% and manufacturing output at 2%. This drives the automotive industry to predict just a 1.6% production increase next year to some 91.5 million units (still below 2016 full year numbers).

Whereas the fastener coating industry can do little to change those factors, one area that it can make changes is to take advantage of the steady move from ICE (internal combustion engines) to NEV (new [or full] electric vehicles). For example, according to Prismark: “More than 10% of global vehicle shipments will be electric before 2025, with a strong shift to purely battery electric vehicles (BEVs).” Fastening for these vehicles has unique opportunities, which applicators can adopt to supply a new range of finishes to meet forecast demand.

New electric vehicles need new coatings
In today’s ICE powered vehicles, steel fasteners are extensively used in powertrain applications. But in an NEV, will these fasteners still be required? According to major tier 1 fastener manufacturers including TR Fastenings Ltd and STANLEY Engineered Fastening ‘yes’; with vehicle lightweighting and the need for improved electrical grounding being critical factors for fasteners in NEVs.

Chris Klok, director for MacDermid Alpha Automotive Electric Vehicle applications, describes battery pack electronics (and housing), body parts (including suspension and braking), electric motors, and power electronics, as being key components that require advanced fastener coatings. Crucial factors for all these applications are higher current carrying capacity and reliable electrical grounding. As new electric vehicles contain more electrical components, there is also more insulation needed between components and the chassis. Additionally, bodies are made of a combination of conductive, poorly conductive, and non-conductive materials. These changes make removing excess heat (from electrical components) and grounding both more challenging and, in many cases, far more important.

Why is removing excess heat and grounding more important in a NEV?
Applications such as battery electronics, body parts, and electric motors, are exposed to the vehicle’s external environment. In the case of electrical components, they are carrying more current than in a typical ICE based vehicle. For the fastener to remain conductive, the coating must provide exceptional corrosion resistance, inhibit the formation of ‘insulating’ white rust deposits and be resilient to thermal shock. Additionally, factors such as the potential for galvanic corrosion to occur (if dissimilar metals like hardened steel fasteners are used to join aluminium sheet) and the continued need for consistent coefficient of friction are also considerations.

Specifying the optimum coatings
In summary, economic and vehicle emission technology are having a both indirect and direct effect on fastener coatings. Indirectly in reducing demand due to lower vehicle production output and directly due to the need for advanced coatings compared to finishes typically available today. The three critical factors that fastener manufacturers will consider for coatings are consistency in conductivity, resistance to galvanic corrosion and coefficient of friction.