Insight

Welcome to the 2024 Janus Perspective, a unique feature that includes a wide cross section of global fastener business leaders. Named after the Roman God 'Janus' – who had the ability to look to the future and to the past, and was often depicted with having two faces – this feature brings together thought leaders from every facet of the industry, from around the world, to give us their retrospective on 2023, as well as prospects and challenges for 2024.

Dr Florian Seidl, chairman of the supervisory board

I love rollercoasters in amusement parks, but I hate rollercoasters in business. Since 2020, there has been a lot of these rollercoaster moments – from Covid-19, then the sudden recovery, stock shortages, supply chain breakdown, inflation and even wars. 

The first part of the rollercoaster was the deep downfall because of the Covid-19 crisis; everybody reduced capacities, stocks and labour force. Then there was a sudden recovery of the economy worldwide. This led to there not being enough capacities and stocks, which led to prices rising up to new heights – as it was hard to get goods. This resulted in everybody ordering too much, and the supply chain broke down. 

Since the beginning of 2023 everybody has tried to sell the overstock, but prices have fallen and the economy, especially in Germany, has slowed down. In addition, China did not recover as far as expected; only the US economy is running at full speed and that is thanks to government spending. The economy has also been impacted by outside influences, and there were a lot. First the pandemic, then the war in Ukraine and now also the Mideast war – both of which have no end in sight. 

What will 2024 bring? 

It has never been so hard to foresee the future. The prognoses of the economic specialists and professors vary more than ever. Nobody knows how long the war in Ukraine will last; nobody knows how much the climate policy of the EU, and especially Germany, will cost and how much it will damage the European economy. Nobody knows how the tension between China and the USA will develop. Nobody knows what Islamic terrorists will do. Nobody knows if the ‘Ampel’, the German government, will hold through the year and what they will do.

There are so many question marks. I guess that we have seen the end of the price spiral downwards. The stronger environment regulations will keep all energy at a high price, and the economies in most countries will grow at a moderate level. Germany will be the last waggon in the European train, but if the politicians reduce bureaucracy and make some decisions, there is good chance that Germany will speed up again.

As it is often said: ‘It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.’ As a business we have endured the last few difficult years very well. We will also endure the coming ones. A crisis always offers a lot of chances, and we will use them. However, economically I would prefer to take a rollercoaster for kids.